Saturday, June 25, 2016

Brexit on U.S. Foreign Policy

So the foolish gamble of Prime Minister David Cameron in calling for a referendum on the European Union has backfired and we are faced with dire warnings about what a British withdrawal will mean to the world economy.  

I am more concerned about some possible consequences on U.S. Foreign Policy.  We need to pivot towards Asia and mediate the ambitions of China in the Pacific.  Instead, we are bogged down in the Middle East morass and now possibly in Europe IF other countries decide to withdraw from the European Union as well.  Already, far-right parties in France, the Netherlands, and Greece agitate for their own referendums.  To me, France is the key.  France was a founding member of the European Union back in the 1950s, and the Franco-German axis has been the driving force behind the expansion of the European Union (including the adoption of the Euro Zone in the 1990s).  Should France withdraw from the E.U., that will exacerbate the perception that the E.U. is increasingly a German-driven organization.  PIGS nations (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) surely will not take kindly to continuous austerity prompting from Germany. 

The forces of fear (fear of Muslims, fear of refugees, fear of Brussels, fear of demographic change) threaten to tear Europe apart.  Putin is laughing.  A disintegrating European Union will only enhance Russia's power.  Russian power will prompt the Eastern European countries to seek military support from the only country strong enough to provide it: the United States. 
Interesting times lie ahead for American policymakers.

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